Economy

Historian with streak of accurate election forecasts since 1984 falls short after 2024 Trump victory

Historian Allan Lichtman, who predicted nearly every election since 1984, was proved to have the wrong projection this cycle after President-elect Trump sailed to victory on Election Day.  

The Fox News Decision Desk projected Trump would win the presidency in the early hours of Wednesday, after Wisconsin’s call for the former president officially brought him above the magic number of 270 electoral votes needed to secure a win.

Lichtman, an election forecaster who had previously correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about presidential elections. He predicted, after the Democratic National Convention, that Vice President Kamala Harris would win the White House this cycle – but election night results show his prediction was wrong.

Lichtman’s ‘Keys to the White House’ consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on election night. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if ‘true’ they are given a ‘key,’ and if ‘false,’ their competitor receives the point.

The ‘keys’ are as follows: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

According to Lichtman’s prediction, Harris held nine of the 13 keys before Election Day. These included no primary contest, no third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no social unrest, no scandal, foreign/military success, and no challenger charisma.

Trump, however, defeated Harris when he secured 277 electoral votes – and counting.

‘The keys show that Kamala Harris is a predicted winner,’ Lichtman told Fox News Digital ahead of the election.

After Trump was projected to be the 47th president, Lichtman said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that he was ‘assessing last night’s results.’

In a statement shared with Fox News Digital, Lichtman said he will soon be addressing the results.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

You May Also Like

Editor's Pick

An Italian holiday may be a priceless experience for those who have enjoyed all this country has to offer. But the summer of 2023...

Editor's Pick

Premature babies at Gaza’s largest hospital are being wrapped in foil and placed next to hot water in a desperate bid to keep them...

Editor's Pick

A 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck western Japan on Monday afternoon, triggering tsunami alerts as far away as eastern Russia and prompting a warning for...

Editor's Pick

Tensions are boiling over in Israel as frustrated families of hostages demand answers from the government about the fate of their loved ones and...

Disclaimer: findandfunds.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Copyright © 2023 findandfunds.com

Exit mobile version